I was actually very pleased to watch this video (link here) about how people are leaving the LDS church in droves, and not because I take sadistic pleasure in seeing the numbers of LDS church membership decrease. I think that the LDS church does in many ways serve as a positive force in the lives of some of my family and friends, and so I cannot with good conscience take joy in seeing it suffer.
But the reason that I can take pleasure in this news report is that, to me, it says that people are thinking for themselves. They are learning about their church (as I did) and are questioning whether what the church says is really true. I would definitely recommend this to anyone at any stage in life. And it's not something that you just do once and you're done. It's more of an ongoing thing that you should do at every stage of life. Think about what you believe, why you believe it, and whether it's a good thing to believe--or whether it's a true thing to believe.
This is how progress is made in the world. If people never stopped to think "Why do we treat black people like slaves but white people like people?" then we'd still have slaves and segregation. If people never stopped to ask "Why is it that men are allowed to vote but not women" then men would still be the only ones making all of the political decisions. We'd still be back in the primitive nomadic societies we had back in the earliest days of mankind. It would not be a good thing. So, let us question our beliefs. Things that we think are "common sense" or "god-given truths", let us ask whether they really are. Let us learn more about the world around us. Reality is so much more exciting and wonderful than any fiction we can ever come up with.
But the reason that I can take pleasure in this news report is that, to me, it says that people are thinking for themselves. They are learning about their church (as I did) and are questioning whether what the church says is really true. I would definitely recommend this to anyone at any stage in life. And it's not something that you just do once and you're done. It's more of an ongoing thing that you should do at every stage of life. Think about what you believe, why you believe it, and whether it's a good thing to believe--or whether it's a true thing to believe.
This is how progress is made in the world. If people never stopped to think "Why do we treat black people like slaves but white people like people?" then we'd still have slaves and segregation. If people never stopped to ask "Why is it that men are allowed to vote but not women" then men would still be the only ones making all of the political decisions. We'd still be back in the primitive nomadic societies we had back in the earliest days of mankind. It would not be a good thing. So, let us question our beliefs. Things that we think are "common sense" or "god-given truths", let us ask whether they really are. Let us learn more about the world around us. Reality is so much more exciting and wonderful than any fiction we can ever come up with.
This is interesting to hear as it is a little hard to reconcile with how the church grew last year. Last year the church added 60 new stakes and 19 new districts and discontinued 10 stakes and 14 districts. (See sidebar of here: http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/) Now, to be fair, 13 of those new stakes were YSA stakes which I won't count and so I really think we gained 47 stakes and 19 districts and lost 10 stakes and 14 districts for a new total of 37 new stakes and 14 new districts.
ReplyDeleteNow I mention stakes because you can't create a new stake with less-active people. To create ~60 new stakes and districts you have to be gaining net a lot of very active members.
Now, maybe what is going on is we have never had years in the past where we were "losing" 10 whole stakes a year. And that is very sad. But given we are gaining 47 stakes which more then compensates for the 10 lost stakes, I think it is a stretch to say people are leaving the church in droves... unless you are willing to say: they are leaving in droves but they are coming in nearly *five* times as fast. (Gaining 4.7 for every one lost).
But alas I do admit it would be nice if the active were growing 100 times faster then people are leaving... not 5.
The church is very good at presenting only the statistics that make themselves look good. Obviously, they're not going to release the number of people leaving the church and they're going to count inactive members as long as they can. They had better not be counting me on their lists because I resigned. However, Conrad is still technically on the church's records and I don't think he'll ever be removed. He has no interest in being removed, but he also does not believe in the doctrine, nor will he ever attend again, so it's not really fair of the church to count him as a member because for all intents and purposes he isn't.
ReplyDeleteAt any rate, think of it this way, Joe. The net gain of wards and branches (I'll just call them units) during 2010 was 336. The number of converts the church reported was 270,000 and the number of children born into the church was 120,000. So, this is a total (gross) increase of 390,000 members for 2010. What this means is that, on average, the 336 units created have almost 1200 members each. We both know this is definitely not the case. In fact, most wards have no more than 500 or 600 people and branches have even less than that. Therefore, another estimate for how many people left the church is (by this logic) roughly half of the number of people joining, not one-fifth. Honestly, all of these estimates you and I (and others) are presenting is all speculation because the church simply won't come out and say how many people left. But, I do think it's much higher than the 20% you're saying it is.
But, honestly, I have no problem with church membership growing. You might see people leaving the church as bad, but I don't necessarily see people leaving or joining the church as bad. I think that people leaving is a good sign because it indicates to me that they've studied about church history and decided for themselves that the church is not true. This is in fact the process that the missionaries are told to use to convert people--to decide for themselves whether it's true. Of course, they only tell one side of the story, and it's a very sterile and superficial presentation of the church, its doctrines and history (you know this is true, Joe--the milk before meat argument).
I am pretty sure most people leaving the church are doing so, *not* because they are studying things out and deciding the chuch is bad like you suggest, but that because to be a member of this church requires a level of work and sacrifice many people are not willing to do. I was a missionary and the number of people we lost because they "learned through careful study" the church was false was a very small number compared to those we lost because it is more fun to play on Sunday then go to church.
ReplyDeleteBut I will be more then antidotal about this. It is a well known fact published in many studies that the more education one receives the more likely they leave their religion.... unless they are Mormon. Mormonism is the only mainstream religion where the more educated they are about the world the more it appears to them the church is true and they should be active it.
Here is one study on the subject that I use only because the figures are very easy to see this. Look at Table 8.33-8.35 of http://bit.ly/xGXkcF. Those in the church with a low level f education have an activity rate of ~30-40%. But those who have college or higher levels of education have an activity rate of 75-80%.
This is not true of any other mainstream religion., but it is about Mormonism. So, again, I think it is hard to make the case those who are leaving are those "learning" about the church. In fact, odds are they aren't educated very much at all. But on the contrary, those who do spend a lot of time educating themselves about the world overwhelmingly become convinced the church is true and they should be active it it.
Anyways, you can give your own guesses why people are leaving, but one thing is for sure: bright people with strong educations about the world are the least likely to leave and so neither I nor the church am worried about people studdying it seriously since those who are good at studying overwhelming become active in the church.
I don't know if as a missionary you can really know what motivation your investigators and converts have for leaving the church. I think with anyone it's a rather complicated thing--particular people who have converted and have what they feel is a testimony of the gospel. I would suggest that a large percentage of investigators who stop listening to missionary discussions do so because they learn things about the church that the church doesn't want them to know (eg, that they teach that everyone can become gods and that god has a wife, etc).
ReplyDeleteI have also heard this rumor that you mention here--that better-educated Mormons are more likely to be active in the church. I even stated that many times to many people over the years. However, I hope you can appreciate the fact that I'm skeptical of it. I'm further skeptical of the validity of the study you present because it was done by BYU, and they would definitely have a motive to stack the evidence in their favor. If you know of a study that was done independent of the LDS church on the matter, I would definitely be interested in reading it.
Without sounding arrogant or condescending toward anyone who chooses to stay in Mormonism (particularly yourself), all of the people that I personally know who have left Mormonism are very bright people with strong educations. Some are lawyers, some are mathematicians, but many of them have at least an undergraduate degree from university (many from BYU, ironically). Yes, I also have some friends who, as you say, simply left the church (or went inactive) because they found its standards too stringent. However, to make the sweeping generalization that this is the main reason why people leave is condescending. There is no single rule that the LDS church teaches that I found impossible to live by, and you should know this. None of its standards were too difficult for me to live by. This is certainly not why I left the church.
So, before you go around making claims such as "bright people with strong educations about the world are the least likely to leave", please present actual, credible data (not just propaganda generated by BYU or the church) to support the claim.
And, the church is in fact quite concerned about people leaving. As it said in the video, they know that a lot of people are leaving the church, and they want to try to stop that (obviously). Also, you have personally expressed that you don't like facts about the church that I've shared, and when I started doing so (mostly with my other blog), I had many family members and lots of friends complain. So, I think that people really do have a big problem with the truth about the Mormon church. I encourage studying of the church and I am attacked by active members--from my own ward, from my family, and from many of my friends from other settings. This is what I say to your claim that there's no threat to the church by members studying its history.
ReplyDeleteI agree the church is concerned when people leave. Did not Christ tell the Parable of the Good Shepard who left the 99 for the one that was lost? Why would Christ not want His church to do the same?
ReplyDeletePS. I tried to access your site from an iPad earlier. It didn't work and said iPads weren't supported. I don't know if there is a setting governing this or what but if you want to make your site accessible to iPad users you might want to look into this.
That's very odd. It works on my iPhone. And it shoul work on an iPad as well. I have the mobile setting turned on, and on an iPad you should be able to get the full site or the mobile version, I believe.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I wonder how you explain why the church feels it necessary to release better manuals that discuss its own history more openly (which, Elder Jensen is quoted as saying in this article) if the people leaving the church are not doing so because of learning about its history. If indeed, all of these people were simply leaving the church because they wanted to go boating on Sunday instead of priesthood meeting, then why would the church want to publish new manuals that help local leaders better understand and teach about church history? There would be no logical connection.
ReplyDeleteI would be thrilled if the history discussion in the manuels becomes more rigorous. We have the coolest history to study hands down. As you know this is difficult because it is hard to turn every Sunday School class into a university level setting. The gospel casts a wide net and not everyone is prepared to do a scholarly analysis of LDS history.
ReplyDeleteBut if the brethren are putting more work into this I applaud them and it seems to jive with the pattern of the Church continually promoting a high standard of education. And this will only be a good thing for the Church since, as the data I presented above suggests, a higher level of education only increases activity and faithfulness in the Church.
Nothing wrong with that. If I was the Lord I would direct the same thing. Increase the rigor and quality of education and increased faithfulness will follow.
Huh... You're right. My iPhone works too. Wonder what is wrong with my iPad.
ReplyDeleteWell good night Keith. Try to not forget us when you get rich from the Clay mathematics reward money.
Well, Joe, you have succeeded in completely avoiding the question I actually asked you. This is either because you didn't understand the question at all (which I rather doubt, considering how intelligent you are) or you're just playing the same game politicians and PR people (especially those of the church) play, which is to answer a slightly related question that makes you look good but doesn't actually address the issue being discussed.
ReplyDeleteI don't recall ever asking you whether teaching more history would be good or bad or the church, nor whether it's something that should be done in Sunday school. These are all distractions from the question which I did ask. The question I asked was why the church felt it necessary to increase education. You said that the main reason people leave (or rather, go inactive) is because they're lazy and not because they're educated about the church. So, I asked you that if you're going to maintain that position, how do you explain the church feeling it necessary to augment its education system in regards to its own history--particularly in light of the fact that it is doing so in reaction to a mass of people leaving the church? You have not addressed this question in the slightest. You have sidestepped it and merely stated a bunch of fluff about how the church is wonderful, etc, etc. This is not surprising to me, since in my experience Mormons are completely incapable of talking about the church without going off about how wonderful the church is even when that has absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand.
I'm not telling you the church isn't wonderful. I'm not asking you whether it is wonderful or not. I'm not asking you whether the leaders of the church are inspired when they decide to revamp church education in any way. None of that matters to me at all. I'm very happy for you that you feel the way you expressed here. However, you have avoided the question I asked and I ask you again to respond to the question itself and not sidestep it as you have done.
Having taken a second look at the study you posted--in particular, the three tables you mentioned--I have several questions that don't seem to be answered in the paper and could very easily account for the data misrepresenting the actual truth. First of all, how is this person counting percentage of activity? If a person leaves the church, does the study count that person as inactive or does the study simply ignore that person? If ignored, that would mean the high activity rate among educated members is not as wonderful as you're making it seem and it would also make your claim false because it would not follow from that data that educated people are the least likely to leave the church. All it would mean is that among educated people who remain in the church, those that go inactive are less common.
ReplyDeleteNext, I see no indication of age, only of education level. The charts indicate that grade school students have a high rate of activity. This should be no surprise since young children simply comply with their parents when asked (or told) to go to church. The fact that people with a high school education have the lowest activity rate may very well be explained by the fact that they are teenagers who are rebelling against their parents. If the study broke down the data further into age groups as well as education level, this ambiguity could be overcome. But as it is, the data may very well only be indicating that high school students see no need to attend church or wish to disobey their parents for whatever reason (the thrill of disobedience, the sadistic pleasure from seeing the reaction from the parents, etc).
The fact that activity rate rises again with level of education could merely be explained by age and longevity in the church, not necessarily just because of an increased level of education.
If I were to use your logic, I could just as easily conclude that educated people are most likely to be atheist, of all possible religions. Atheists score very high on verbal skills tests and by many methods of measuring intelligence and level of education, atheists are at or near the top of the list almost every time.
The fact that educated Mormons are active does not impress me, nor does it imply that educated people are unlikely to leave the church. I'm sure you'll admit that I'm a highly educated person, having received two college degrees, and while it is true that I was extremely active (by any sense of the word, I was one of the most active members of my ward) while I was a member, it is also the case that I left the church once I studied its history more in-depth than I had been taught in church. Therefore, this article may be correct in saying that educated members are active but it should not be concluded from that that educated members are unlikely to leave the church.